Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
