Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
